Wednesday, 28 July 2010 12:09

A firm commitment to sustainability and combating climate change would moderate the temperature increase in the Canary Islands as much as two degrees. Santa Cruz de Tenerife: If consciousness against climate change remains just that, in conscience, and do not take the necessary measures to mitigate global warming, the temperature of the Canary Islands could increase nearly four degrees by 2100. That would be the worst case scenario, and is known from the regionalized climate change projections which updated yesterday by the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET).

"To carry out this study we have used fifteen different models, which have thrown stockings.


From all these results have been produced maximum temperature projections, the minimum temperature and rainfall, "said Irene Sanz, director of the Canary Islands Institute of Meteorology.

These models, which are made by U.S. researchers, Chinese, Canadians, etc, are based on software.


They introduced a number of variables. However, in any case be pro? Projections, the findings show should be taken with caution.


"It's hard to predict what will happen in 90 years, just as it is complex to discern the weather will be tomorrow, so these data must contextualize and interpret them know," said the meteorologist.


Three possible futures


Experts have recreated? Thanks to these tools three possible futures. The first scenario posed is the total lack of humanity to climate change. That is, what will happen if no action is taken.


In this context which would lead to an increase of four degrees of temperature? Canarias.


In the second case, it? Becomes aware and acted, "We are fully sustainable," said Sanz. In this case, the increase of temperatures in the Islands could be reduced by up to two degrees. Regarding the third hypothesis, there is a middle position, and indeed, the values increase? Heat are also intermediate. There are three degrees of temperature, which provide for that? Case.


Keep in mind that this data is what is called a shadow, ie a zone of uncertainty, a range between which range.


As for precipitation, the conclusions are not definitive, because the shadow cited above is too sharp.


Still, for the last decade of this century, the average rainfall could reach mainland Spain probably located in a range between 15% and 30% compared to precipitation for the period 1961-1990.


The regional climate projections or scenarios, which first? Mere presentation took place in 2007, is one of the essential starting points for? Assess impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in future need to change? Climate. All these results confirm those that have been obtained previously.